Commuting has significantly changed in recent years. If you’re a white-collar worker, it’s highly likely you’re commuting less than before the pandemic. Working from home is one major change, but other foundational shifts are starting to impact commuting. Let’s explore where things are heading and what’s slowing them down. In this article we’ll look at the forces impacting the future of commuting and what kind of sway they hold.
the forces at play
Several forces are altering how commuting happens. Commodity inflation is making manufactured goods more expensive and out of reach for many people. Environmental issues are becoming more and more important to average American voters, with many thinking the dangers are underestimated. As employers embrace the demand for flexibility in working locations, the need for a reliable car decreases. These forces converge, leading to a rising tide of shared and possibly automated commutes on a smaller scale.
Various companies are developing autonomous vehicles, including Uber, Google, and Tesla. They aim to tap into the nearly $8,500 per person per year on commuting. Although the real potential lies in freight, personal transportation is another aspect that most people will directly experience. This shift resembles Edison’s claim to make light bulbs so cheap that only the wealthy could afford candles. As personal ownership decreases, we will share and rent more of our resources instead of owning them. Autonomous ridesharing is one piece of this puzzle, extracting more value from an underused asset – your car. Even beyond not using this asset there are other costs embedded in working from home.
Flexible work arrangements add to the underuse of vehicles. With people needing to go to the office only three days a week, cars see even less use and could be shared more widely. Ridesharing, especially automated, will capitalize on this opportunity and play a major role in the future of commuting. In many cities, the costs of vehicle ownership, maintenance, and performance already average more than paying on demand for transportation. This trend will eventually spread to rural areas.
Economics and environmentalism drive these changes. Increased ridesharing has both positive and negative economic impacts. People will have more discretionary money to spend, but wealth will concentrate in the hands of the asset-owning class, driving divisions. On the environmental side, ridesharing is estimated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars by more than 10%. Combined with fewer oil changes, tire replacements, and fluid usage, ridesharing is a more efficient use of vehicles than personal ownership.
challenges and concerns
However, several practical matters must be reconciled before these changes become everyday experiences. Although there will be fewer overall maintenance and performance costs, they will concentrate on fewer mechanics and customers. This situation makes managing a network of autonomous vehicles complicated and precarious. As supply chains get leaner, disruptions are magnified. If appropriate tires are unavailable or one customer controls the market, many people could be left without reliable transportation. This is a classic centralization problem. Additionally, self-driving vehicles require significant working capital.
Infrastructure is another challenge. While cities like Philadelphia have grid patterns, most cities do not, so navigating winding roads can be a problem. Weather can stop autonomous vehicles by blocking essential sensors and cameras. Depending on the vehicles’ power source, they’ll need access to gas or charging stations, which might not be feasible in the quantities and locations needed for mass adoption. Rural areas with difficult-to-navigate roads could also complicate adoption.
Security is a concern in autonomous transport. Protecting passengers from other passengers and vehicles from remote or physical attackers is crucial. How will rideshare owners control who gets into a vehicle? There’s no guarantee that the person entering is the same one who requested the ride. There is also the risk of criminals targeting defenseless passengers. Without a driver to monitor the situation, there’s significant danger for users. Fraud scams, such as break-checking, are additional concerns. Self-driving vehicles lack the ability to judge a situation’s vibe and avoid falling into a trap. If they aren’t prepared for the darker side of humanity, ridesharing could be in danger.
The future
As we move forward, it’s essential to think about these trends and their implications. While the future may look different from what popular wisdom suggests, being prepared for these changes can help us take advantage of the opportunities they present. Balancing the benefits of shared and autonomous transportation with the challenges of infrastructure, security, and the potential widening of economic divisions will be crucial in shaping a more sustainable and efficient future of commuting.